This paper assesses the impact of GATT/WTO membership on agricultural virtual water trade (VWT). Utilizing a newly constructed dataset that integrates international and intra-national VWT flows, we find that GATT/WTO membership enhances VWT, with GATT membership driving a 23.5 percent increase and WTO membership contributing a 59.4 percent increase in bilateral VWT flows.
This paper examines how non-tariff provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) influence agricultural trade. Using a theory-consistent structural gravity model and a plug-in Lasso algorithm, we identify nine key provisions—such as SPS harmonization, SOE regulation, and trade facilitation—that significantly affect trade flows. Post-Lasso estimation reveals that four provisions drive most of the observed trade gains. A general equilibrium analysis shows that wider adoption of these provisions would substantially boost global agricultural trade and welfare. These findings highlight the pivotal role of regulatory content in shaping modern agricultural trade.
This study investigates the impact of tariff-induced trade shocks on U.S. farm income, focusing on relative tariff burdens against major competitors. We develop a theoretical framework based on Armington-CES preferences to show how relative tariffs affect export demand and producer revenue. Using a shift-share approach with county-level crop and trade data (2001–2017), we construct a relative tariff shock measure. Empirically, we find that a one-unit increase in relative tariffs vis-à-vis Brazil reduces farm income growth by about 15%, with larger farms exhibiting greater resilience. The results highlight structural vulnerabilities in U.S. agriculture and suggest the need for more targeted trade adjustment support.
- with C. Zurita and S. Steinbach. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy (2025)
- with S. Steinbach. The World Economy (2025)
- with S. Gordeev, J. Jelliffe, and S. Steinbach. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy (2025)
- with S. Steinbach. Review of World Economics (2024)
- with S. Steinbach and C. Zurita. Food Policy (2024)
- 2025 WAEA Outstanding Published Research Award
- 2025 AAEA Best Paper Award - International Section
- with S. Steinbach. Review of International Economics (2024)
- with S. Ahn and S. Steinbach. Agribusiness (2023)